By John Zeltmann

March 6, 2017

All too often, wildly swinging stock markets get a bum rap. They deprive watchful investors of sleep, prompt front-page photos of a panicked New York Stock Exchange trader, and force even the most diligent investors to consider reducing their exposure to equities.

By Stanley F. Ehrlich

February 16, 2017

An article in the New York Times¹ titled “Probably a Bad Idea to Sell Just Because You Fear Trump” reminded me of a piece in MONEY Magazine that I read last summer. That article questioned how the election might impact your investments, and included two comments worth repeating...

Source: Direxion Funds

February 16, 2017

By the numbers…....

• The S&P 500 has gained an average of 10.2% (total return) over the last 50 years. The index has also been positive over the last 8 years (9 years in a row is the all-time record), 13 of the last 14 calendar years, and 40 of the last 50 years.

• The split between up and down trading days for the S&P 500 over the last 50 years is 53% up and 47% down. The split during calendar year 2016 was 52/48.

February 16, 2017

If you’ve read or heard the term contrarian as it relates to stock picking, it refers to a philosophy that goes against the grain, someone who doesn’t follow the herd. At the end of 2015, for example, after the S&P 500 produced a total gain of only 1.4%, only 25% of stock investors were bullish (i.e., investors who thought the market was going higher).

By Stanley F. Ehrlich

January 3, 2017

Happy New Year! Best wishes for a healthy, happy, and prosperous 2017.

As the year drew to a close, we moved into the prediction silly season. In an often futile attempt to predict and outsmart the markets, print, on-line, and television media were filled with pundits predicting the markets will go up (or down); interest rates will rise (or fall); housing prices will climb (or drop); and on, and on. It’s an inevitable occurrence.

Thus, I think it’s only fitting that I make at least one prediction, a prediction I am confident has a 100% probability of occurrence. Unfortunately, I’m unable to tell you the date when it will occur, as my predictive powers are somewhat limited.