November 15, 2018

I recently read an article in an industry journal¹ titled: “You Can’t Win if You’re Afraid to Lose.” The tagline was: “To experience higher potential gains, clients need to be willing to tolerate occasional losses.”

Source: Direxion Funds

November, 15 2018

• A greater percentage of Millennials have all of their pre-tax retirement money invested in cash and bonds (20%) than those that have all of their pre-tax retirement money invested in stocks (19%). 2,593 Millennials (ages 20-36 in 2017) were surveyed in the 4th quarter 2017.

• 47 investment bankers worldwide received jail time as a result of the 2008 global recession, including 25 bankers from Iceland. Just 1 American investment banker went to prison, receiving a 30-month sentence for “fraudulently inflating” the prices of mortgage-backed securities.

• 618 US employers surveyed in the 1st quarter 2018 anticipate offering a starting base salary of $65,000 to college graduates with a bachelor’s degree, $85,000 to workers coming “direct-from-industry” and $105,000 to MBA graduates.

Source: Direxion Funds

September 30, 2018

• Foreigners have increased their holdings of US Treasury securities from $1 trillion in 2000 to more than $6.2 trillion in 2018.

• In June 2018, the Congressional Budget Office projected that by the year 2048 (i.e., 30 years from now) the US government will spend as much money servicing its national debt as it will spend that year on the nation’s Social Security program. Today, our nation’s net interest cost is just 33% of our Social Security outlays.

• Borrowing $100,000 on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 4.53% (today’s national average) requires a monthly “principal and interest” payment of $508.47. Borrowing $100,000 on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 5.53% requires a monthly “principal and interest” payment of $569.67.

August 15, 2018

I can’t say it takes up a lot of our day, but John and I do spend a little time answering a similar question using a variety of the same answers: “NO”, “I don’t think so”, “Have you really thought about this?”, and “Is this is the same brother-in-law that you told me last year was a loser and good-for-nothing?”

What’s the question you ask? “I’d like to invest some money in (fill in the blank on the latest investment opportunity).”

August 15, 2018

A few years ago, Carl Richards, author of “The Behavior Gap: Simple Ways to Stop Doing Dumb Things with Money,” wrote a column¹ in which he advocated that financial advisors should play small ball with money they manage. It’s directly related to this issue’s Stan’s World, so we took it out of the archives, dusted it off, and will use it to explain further why our asset management process so closely resembles small ball.

Source: Direxion Funds

June 30, 2018

• 28% of American jobs do not require any formal educational credential, i.e., not even a high school diploma.

• Over the last 20 years, i.e., 4/30/98 to 4/30/18, inflation in the United States (using the “Consumer Price Index”) has increased +54.2% or +2.2% annually. An individual living on a fixed-income who has not benefited from “cost-of-living” increases would have only 65% of the purchasing power as of 4/30/18 that he/she had 20 years earlier. The consumer price index (CPI) is a measure of inflation compiled by the US Bureau of Labor Studies.

May 15, 2108

Brunner Opticians has been a landmark in Westfield for more than 75 years. When we first moved to Westfield, I was the proud owner of three pairs of new eyeglasses I couldn't use because the prescription was incorrect in all three. I looked for a local optometrist, found one at Brunner, and made an appointment to see if he could figure out what had gone wrong.  He did a thorough eye examination, wondered why my previous prescription was changed, and voila, vision problem corrected.

Source: Direxion Funds

May 15, 2018

• Major US retailers closed 6,955 stores nationwide during calendar year 2017, a total greater than the number of closures that occurred in any single year during the global financial crisis that began 10 years ago.

• Student loan debt, equal to $1.38 trillion as of 12/31/17, has doubled in just over 8 years. Student loan debt was $690 billion as of 9/30/09.

• The US homeownership percentage (i.e. “owner” households as a percentage of total households) was 63.4% in 2016, the lowest percentage nationwide since 1965 or 51 years earlier when the rate was just 63.0%. The homeownership percentage rose to 63.9% in 2017.

Source: Direxion Funds

February 15, 2018

• Since 1950, there have been 59 different 10-year periods (i.e., the 10-years from 1950-59, 1951-60, 1952-61, . . . 2008-2017). The S&P 500 index produced an average annual total return of less than +7% during 15 of the 59 decade-long periods (25% of the time). 19 of the 59 periods (32% of the time) resulted in an average annual total return of at least +14%.

• During those 59 different 10-year periods, the S&P 500 has produced a positive total return result in 57 of the 59 decade-long periods (97% of the time), and at least 6% per (total return) in 48 of the 59 periods.

• After closing at 2873 on Friday 1/26/18, it took just 13 days for the S&P 500 to fall 10.2% (to 2581) by the close of trading on Thursday 2/08/18. The 13-day correction (i.e., a drop of at least 10% for the stock index) was the fastest correction in the last 50 years. The next quickest correction was a 20-day drop that occurred in October 1997.

February 15, 2018

Clients are sometimes surprised when we respond “no” when they ask if we saw a market drop coming. While we all may realize a market drop will eventually occur, we can never predict when that might happen. Though the volatility that returned to the stock market in early February was sudden and dramatic, it wasn’t altogether unexpected considering the exceptional run this market has had.