March 31, 2017

The market’s recent gains since the presidential election have led some investors to conclude that we must be approaching a market bubble. Mark Hulbert, writing in Barron’s¹, says “Not so fast.”  A recent academic paper² defines a bubble “as a price increase of at least 100% over a two-year period followed within the subsequent two years by a drop of at least 40%.” By that definition, there have only been two bubbles in our history: the market that peaked in 1929, and the dot-com bubble that peaked in 2000.

March 31, 2017

Quoting the Genworth 2016 Cost-of-Care Survey¹, AARP estimated the median daily cost for long-term care in a semi-private room in 2016. The results are surprising, though possibly depressing, depending upon where you reside.

Source: Direxion Funds

By the numbers…....

• Total credit card debt in the US dropped in January 2017 to $996 billion, the first month-over-month decrease since February 2016. The peak in credit card debt was $1.022 trillion in April 2008.

• Since 1950, there have been 58 different 10-year periods (i.e., the 10 years from 1950-1959, 1951-1960, etc.). The S&P 500 produced an average annual total return of less than +7% during 15 of the 58 decade-long periods (26% of the time). 19 of the 58 periods (33% of the time) resulted in an average annual total return of at least +14%.

By John Zeltmann

March 6, 2017

All too often, wildly swinging stock markets get a bum rap. They deprive watchful investors of sleep, prompt front-page photos of a panicked New York Stock Exchange trader, and force even the most diligent investors to consider reducing their exposure to equities.

By Stanley F. Ehrlich

February 16, 2017

An article in the New York Times¹ titled “Probably a Bad Idea to Sell Just Because You Fear Trump” reminded me of a piece in MONEY Magazine that I read last summer. That article questioned how the election might impact your investments, and included two comments worth repeating...

February 16, 2017

We haven’t devoted much space in these pages to a discussion about the fiduciary rule, primarily because we are fiduciaries. In brief, a fiduciary is a professional who provides financial advice in the best interest of their clients. A fiduciary can never recommend a service or product knowing that it’s not necessarily the best fit for their client’s individual needs. In fact, the professional organization that we belong to, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) dictates that a requirement of membership is that we are fee-only planners, who don’t receive any other income (i.e., sales commissions).

February 16, 2017

The Wall Street Journal¹ explored a topic that is of interest to many persons either approaching or already in retirement: Where to live? For some, the decision is dictated by family or friends. For others, health issues play a big part in the decision.

Source: Direxion Funds

February 16, 2017

By the numbers…....

• The S&P 500 has gained an average of 10.2% (total return) over the last 50 years. The index has also been positive over the last 8 years (9 years in a row is the all-time record), 13 of the last 14 calendar years, and 40 of the last 50 years.

• The split between up and down trading days for the S&P 500 over the last 50 years is 53% up and 47% down. The split during calendar year 2016 was 52/48.

February 16, 2017

If you’ve read or heard the term contrarian as it relates to stock picking, it refers to a philosophy that goes against the grain, someone who doesn’t follow the herd. At the end of 2015, for example, after the S&P 500 produced a total gain of only 1.4%, only 25% of stock investors were bullish (i.e., investors who thought the market was going higher).

February 16, 2017

Feel like you don't understand half of the television and print ads you see?  Here's why: