Source: Direxion Funds

May 15, 2017

By the numbers…....

• The last time that the S&P 500 was up on a total return basis for the 1^st quarter yet finished down for the full calendar year was 2002. (The S&P 500 gained 6.1% on a total return basis in Q1 2017.)

• The 75-year average growth rate of the US economy (i.e. Gross Domestic Product, or GDP) is +3.3% per year. However, the actual growth rate of the US economy has reached +3.3% or greater in only 2 of the last 16 calendar years.

By Stanley F. Ehrlich

March 31, 2017

The ongoing debate between actively managed and passively managed mutual funds has picked up steam recently. Actively managed funds are mutual funds with an investment team that seeks to buy the ‘best’ stocks for their portfolio. I have an image of the chief investment officer standing on a desk in the middle of that fund’s trading floor screaming: “Buy only winners; sell all the losers. Your bonuses depend on it!” (Maybe I need to watch the movie Wall Street to see if they actually do that.)

March 31, 2017

It was Joseph Heller, the author of Catch-22, who pointed out: “Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't after you.” As it turns out, that’s especially true of your computer.

March 31, 2017

The market’s recent gains since the presidential election have led some investors to conclude that we must be approaching a market bubble. Mark Hulbert, writing in Barron’s¹, says “Not so fast.”  A recent academic paper² defines a bubble “as a price increase of at least 100% over a two-year period followed within the subsequent two years by a drop of at least 40%.” By that definition, there have only been two bubbles in our history: the market that peaked in 1929, and the dot-com bubble that peaked in 2000.

March 31, 2017

Quoting the Genworth 2016 Cost-of-Care Survey¹, AARP estimated the median daily cost for long-term care in a semi-private room in 2016. The results are surprising, though possibly depressing, depending upon where you reside.

Source: Direxion Funds

By the numbers…....

• Total credit card debt in the US dropped in January 2017 to $996 billion, the first month-over-month decrease since February 2016. The peak in credit card debt was $1.022 trillion in April 2008.

• Since 1950, there have been 58 different 10-year periods (i.e., the 10 years from 1950-1959, 1951-1960, etc.). The S&P 500 produced an average annual total return of less than +7% during 15 of the 58 decade-long periods (26% of the time). 19 of the 58 periods (33% of the time) resulted in an average annual total return of at least +14%.

By John Zeltmann

March 6, 2017

All too often, wildly swinging stock markets get a bum rap. They deprive watchful investors of sleep, prompt front-page photos of a panicked New York Stock Exchange trader, and force even the most diligent investors to consider reducing their exposure to equities.

By Stanley F. Ehrlich

February 16, 2017

An article in the New York Times¹ titled “Probably a Bad Idea to Sell Just Because You Fear Trump” reminded me of a piece in MONEY Magazine that I read last summer. That article questioned how the election might impact your investments, and included two comments worth repeating...

February 16, 2017

We haven’t devoted much space in these pages to a discussion about the fiduciary rule, primarily because we are fiduciaries. In brief, a fiduciary is a professional who provides financial advice in the best interest of their clients. A fiduciary can never recommend a service or product knowing that it’s not necessarily the best fit for their client’s individual needs. In fact, the professional organization that we belong to, the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors (NAPFA) dictates that a requirement of membership is that we are fee-only planners, who don’t receive any other income (i.e., sales commissions).

February 16, 2017

The Wall Street Journal¹ explored a topic that is of interest to many persons either approaching or already in retirement: Where to live? For some, the decision is dictated by family or friends. For others, health issues play a big part in the decision.