By The Numbers - November 2017Submitted by S. F. Ehrlich Associates, Inc. on November 15th, 2017
Source: Direxion Funds
November 15, 2017
- Over the last 25 years, the S&P 500 stock index has gained an average of 4.9% (total return) over the final 3 months of the year. 20 of the last 25 fourth quarters (80%) have produced a positive total return.
- The S&P 500 has experienced 10 drops of at least 5% during its bull market run that just passed 104 months in length on 11/09/17, but none since 2/11/16.
- This is the second longest bull market for the S&P 500 since 1950, trailing only the 113 ½ month long bull that ended in March 2000.
- It was 10 years ago (10/09/17) that the S&P 500 peaked at a then all-time record closing high of 1565. The very next day, the index began a painful 17-month tumble that resulted in a 57% drop of the raw index, it’s worst bear market loss in the last 80 years. In the last 80 years, the S&P 500 has suffered through 4 bears, each with losses of at least 40%.
- It was 9 years ago (10/16/08) that Warren Buffet wrote his “Buy America, I am” op-ed article in the New York Times. Buffet encouraged investors to “be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” Buffet’s letter was released less than 5 months before the stock market bottomed on 3/9/09.
- A homeowner with a federally backed mortgage (e.g. a FHA insured loan) is required by law to purchase flood insurance if their home is located in a “FEMA-mapped 100-year floodplain,” i.e. there is at least a 1% annual probability of a flood-based upon floodplain maps assembled by the Federal Emergency Management Association.
- The personal savings rate in the US was 3.5% in July 2017. The personal savings rate in Germany was 9.7% in July 2017.
- The last bank to fail in the US and require a financial bailout occurred on 5/2617 or more than 165 days ago. That’s the 2nd longest stretch between American bank failures in the last 10 years, a decade that has seen 526 bank failures or 1 failure per week.
- 43% of 6,389 Americans surveyed admit that they “have difficulty making ends meet.”
- Life expectancy at birth for an American has increased 6.9 years over the last 40 years (i.e. life expectancy at birth is increasing by 1 year every 6 years).
- 15% of the US population is at least age 65, ranging from 19% of Florida’s citizens to just 11% of Utah’s residents.
- 74% of the projected spending of the US government over the next decade is mandatory spending (Medicare, Medicaid or Social Security) and interest on our debt.
- The budget deficit for the US in the fiscal year 2017 was $666 billion. The US has run a budget deficit in 52 of the last 57 years fiscal years. The only surplus years were 1969, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001.
- Japan, a country that has strict immigration policies and a low birth rate, had a population of 128 million in 2010. Japan’s population is projected to fall 34% to 85 million by the year 2100.
- The population of the US reached 300 million on 10/17/06. The population of the US reached 326 million on 10/17/17. Thus, over the last 11 years, the population of the US has grown an average of 2.36 million citizens per year as a result of births, deaths, and immigration.
- The US has suffered 218 weather and climate disasters since 1980 in which the cost of damages exceeded $1 billion (inflation adjusted value in 2017 dollars), an average of nearly 6 separate billion dollar or more disasters per year.
- Less than 5% of global fixed income securities that are investment grade have a current yield greater than 4% today. Before the 2008 global real estate crisis began, 80% of investment grade fixed income securities worldwide had a current yield greater than 4%.
- In August 2009 the United States had 6.4 out-of-work Americans per job opening. In August 2017 the United States had 1.2 out-of-work Americans per job opening.
- The state and local sales tax in Chicago is 10.25%, the highest rate of any major US city. The state and local sales tax in Portland is 0%.
- 15 state governments are not financially prepared for the next US recession. The modeling that was used in this study assumed that a state would need 10% of its annual budget set aside in cash to weather a moderate recession. The 15 states include North Dakota, Illinois, and New Jersey.
- 24.8% of unemployed Americans have been out of work for at least 27 weeks as of 10/31/17, i.e. jobless for more than 6 months. 45.5% of unemployed Americans had been out of work for at least 27 weeks as of 4/2010 or 7½ years ago.
- The 111.4 million households that existed in the United States on 9/30/09 were split between 75.3 million owners and 36.1 million renters. The 119.1 million households in the United States on 9/20/17 were split between 76.2 million owners and 42.9 million renters.
- 34% of American households headed by seniors at least age 65 receive 90% or more of their annual income from their Social Security retirement benefits.
- The Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) formerly known as the Food Stamps program, provides support to 40 million low income and disabled Americans. An individual with no other income source can receive a maximum SNAP benefit today of $192 per month or $6.31 per day.