By The Numbers - August 2017Submitted by S. F. Ehrlich Associates, Inc. on August 23rd, 2017
Source: Direxion Funds
August 15, 2017
By The Numbers...
- The findings of the Federal Reserve’s “stress test” completed on 34 large US banks were released on 6/22/17. The tests, created in 2009, showed the banks all passed for the third consecutive year. The banks were put through financial simulations to determine if they could survive a two-year economic slump that included a 10% national unemployment rate, 50% decline in stock values, 25% drop in home prices and 35% decline in commercial real estate prices.
- The yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed at 1.36% on 7/8/16, its lowest closing yield ever. 10-year notes have traded in the US since 1790. The current rate on the 10-year Treasury note is approximately 2.20%.
- Moody’s estimates that the unfunded pension liability for the 5 public pension systems in Illinois is $250 billion, double the $127 billion estimate from the state’s actuaries, a function of the state using more optimistic investment assumptions than used by Moody’s.
- 31% of American workers surveyed have accumulated no money for their retirement on either a pre-tax or post-tax basis.
- In July 2009 there were 14.6 million unemployed Americans and 2.2 million job openings. In April 2017 there were 7.1 million unemployed Americans and 6.0 million job openings.
- Permits for the construction of 6.14 million single family homes were issued during the four years 2003-2006. Permits for the construction of 6.08 million single family homes were issued during the 10 years 2007-2016.
- One of every 24 individual income tax returns (4.2%) filed for tax year 2014 reported adjusted gross income of at least $200,000.
- There were 61 million Americans who received Social Security benefits (retirement or disability) in 2016, or 19% of the US population. Social Security’s total income (payroll taxes collected plus interest earned) amounted to $957 billion last year, $35 billion more than the $922 billion of program expenditures and outlays. Social Security actuaries predict the program will have just 5 more years (2017-2021) where total income will exceed expenditures and outlays.
- An estimated 17% of American adults will provide some level of care to their aging parents (e.g. dressing, bathing, feeding or shopping) at some point in their lives.
- The median square footage of new single family homes built in the US in 2016 was 2,422 square feet, an increase of 532 square feet over the last 25 years. That’s equivalent to a 23’ x 23’ addition to a new home today compared to a home constructed in 1991.
- 27% of the 12.4 million manufacturing jobs in the US today are held by employees who are at least age 55.
- The top two states in the US for “road quality” are Nebraska and Tennessee. The bottom two states are Connecticut and Wisconsin.
- 8/5/17 was the 6-year anniversary since Standard & Poor’s downgraded the US from its AAA credit rating. Since then, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note has fallen from 2.57% to 2.20% and the S&P 500 has gained more than 130%.
- If you selected any single month at random to invest in the S&P 500 during the 25-years ending 6/30/17, you achieved a positive return for that month 66% of the time. If you extend your time horizon to just one year from the date of investment, you achieved a positive return 81% of the time. If your time horizon was two years, you achieved a positive total return 80% of the time.
- There are 2.8 workers paying payroll taxes for every Social Security beneficiary in 2017. There will be an estimated 2.2 workers for every Social Security beneficiary in 2035.
- Lenders foreclosed on 169,124 homes in the first six months of 2017, down 14.3% from the first half of 2016. The peak of bank repossessions in the last decade was in 2010 when more than one million homes were taken back by lenders.
- There are 75.7 million homeowners in the US. Of the 75.7 million, 30.6 million homeowners have no housing debt (i.e. they are mortgage-debt free). Of the 45.1 million homeowners that have debt on their home, just 1.8 million homeowners have mortgage debt that exceeds the value of their homes. The number of ‘underwater’ homeowners peaked at 15.1 million in 2010.
- Of 1,828 Americans surveyed, 31% said they did not attend college because it was too expensive.
- Of the 524 bank failures that have occurred in the US during the 10 year period ending 6/30/17, more than half have occurred in 4 states: Georgia, Florida, Illinois, and California. Nine US states had zero bank failures.
- 95% of new households in the US in the last 10 years were comprised of families that are renting (i.e. 8.13 million new renter households out of 8.56 million new households).
- The longest bull market for the S&P 500 since 1950 lasted 3,452 calendar days (i.e. the 9.5 year period from 10/11/90 to 3/24/00). The current bull market for the S&P 500 is a little under 3,100 calendar days, or approximately 8.5 years since 3/9/09. The current bull market would have to last until 8/22/18 to reach 3,453 calendar days.
- 95% of the companies in the S&P 500 have underfunded pension plans.
- 48 million Americans are at least age 65 today, representing 15% of the 326 million citizens in the US. The number of age 65+ seniors is projected to increase by a net of 4,700 per day over the next 18 years. (A net increase is the number of seniors turning age 65 each day minus the number of deaths in the 65+ age group.)
- Halfway through calendar year 2017, 5,300 retail stores have closed, equal to more than 200 per week.
Source: “By The Numbers.” Direxion ETFs & Funds, 9 Jul. 2017 through 14 Aug. 2017.